SrasV1, 2020, Analysis, bibRecord, 000696

Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.

Identifieur interne : 000696 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000695; suivant : 000697

Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.

Auteurs : Xin Miao Rong [République populaire de Chine] ; Liu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Hui Di Chu [République populaire de Chine] ; Meng Fan [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE [ 1551-0018 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32233563

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Humains, Infections à coronavirus (diagnostic), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale (diagnostic), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Retard de diagnostic, Simulation numérique.
MESH :
- diagnostic : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Humains, Modèles théoriques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Pandémies, Retard de diagnostic, Simulation numérique.
Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Computer Simulation, Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission).
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Computer Simulation, Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics.

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.

DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020149
PubMed: 32233563

Affiliations:

République populaire de Chine

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:32233563

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.</div>
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Serveur d'exploration SRAS

Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.

Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

	Serveur d'exploration SRAS
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